Managing for the future pdf

Unconscious scanning involves a subliminal sensitivity to the hesitant details of emergence that are generally overlooked by the untrained eye.

To cultivate this sensitivity we must first recognize a different logic in operation. From State Logic to Nomadology the difference is that Chess codes and decodes space, whereas Go proceeds altogether differently, territorializing or deterritorializing it. Deleuze and Guattari, , p. According to this genea-logical approach it is possible to trace the lineage of a decisional event from an individual occurrence through the branches, to the trunk and eventually to the roots.

Such a logic presup- poses linearity, traceability, progression, multiplication, and an overarching unity. Thus even a book or a chapter such as this one embodies this familiar kind of root—tree logic. We have an established procedure involving a title, an introduction, various sub-sections and a conclusion. As the ideas we are trying to deal with get more complicated we invent ever-more sub-categories to account for detailed differ- ences.

Thus it acquires a tree-like structure beginning with a singular trunk or the main theme of the book, branches and sub-branches and so on. One begets two, two begets four, four begets sixteen and so on. Most importantly, all the elements down to each individual leaf can be traced back to the trunk and ultimately to the root that nourishes it. The equivalent concept of such traceability in modern thinking is the notion of causal chain and our ability to trace every effect to a specific cause.

The purpose of the State apparatus is to locate and represent each of its members so that it can achieve precision, mastery and overall control over its subjects. Each of its subjects can then be maneuvered into place to serve a specific societal role. Chess is a good example of how Statehood is played out. Chess pieces are coded; they have an internal nature and intrinsic properties from which their movements, situations and confrontations derive.

They have qualities. Each is like a subject. Chess is about the arrangement, coding and decoding of a restrictive space in order to achieve overall mastery and control. It is like a State war machine that can go to war with clearly specified tasks and clear battle-lines.

There are clear rules of engagement and the status of each piece is well defined hierarchically. Chess is the ultimate example of the conscious focused planning of field maneuvers. In contrast the Chinese game Go or Wei Chi as it is more traditionally called is also played on a board much like chess except that its units are simple pellets or discs, anonymous arithmetic units without any privileged status and that only have a collective function.

Go is a kind of war without battle lines, with neither direct confron- tation nor decisive retreats. Go is more like terrorism and guerrilla warfare, the enemy is often unknown or invisible and the attacks are sporadic and can come from any direction. In Go small seemingly insignificant moves can have massive repercussions. In chess you win by defeating the opponent and when you win you know it.

The victory is decisive. It is all or nothing. In Go you win by occupying more territory and hence have a greater leverage than your opposition. Your adversary may be weakened but not destroyed. Go is the logic of nomads and rhizomes, not a root—tree logic, the logic of State. Chess and Go represents two diametrically opposed ways of thinking about strat- egies, futures, and possibilities. One is linear, focused, and mission-led.

The other is open, dispersive, and opportunity seeking. One is rational the other a creative search. State logic orders the relentless flow of crude and inarticulate experiences into readily identifiable finite units in order to control and manipulate them to its advantage. It is preoccupied with positions, fixities, and stable relations.

It relies upon a precise logic of focused attention, clear judgement, structured reasoning, and controlled action. Nomadic logic, on the other hand, is that which dwells in the undifferentiated and pre-linguistic stream of experience and resists all premature attempts to translate such experience into secondary structured forms. It celebrates the possibilities that come with the vagueness, ambiguity, and fluidity of experience. To achieve deeper insight and hence foresight it is necessary to cultivate this quality of nomadology.

Cultivating Foresight A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step. Small remote peripheral causes can create dramatic effects and consequences.

The possibilities of non-local causality are forcing us to re-evaluate our understanding of the traditional relationship between cause and effect. It forces us to expand our vision and to look further afield for causal connec- tions.

Yet the wider our scan the more uncertain and ambivalent the causal possibil- ities appear. What we have called a nomadic logic urges us to dwell in the open-ended, incomplete, and ambiguous without prematurely seeking closure and allows us to see how it is possible for seemingly peripheral events to substantially influence central outcomes in the fullness of time. In art, as we have seen, the student is taught to attend to the microscopic scribbles or the individual strokes of brushwork instead of the dominant form figure and to attend diligently to these peripheral activities.

In both instances it is the nomadic logic that is cultivated and a scattered attention or eye- wander encouraged. It is this seemingly marginal activity that allows us to develop the necessary sensitivity for foresight. However, the learning of this form of subsidiary awareness or unconscious scanning is not just restricted to music and the arts. It can also be cultivated in a number of ways including the playing of a variety of combination games albeit in a much more limited manner and in the reading of crime novels.

According to Ehrenzweig , p. The playing of combination games is not unlike creative work. It too requires the scanning of serial structures in order to decide strategy. In all such instances the creative thinker has to make a decision based on inad- equate information. That is the essence of creativity.

However, there are significant differences in degrees of creative search beginning from crossword puzzles, com- bination games like chess and bridge, and much more open-ended ones like Go as we have tried to argue. Go is much more like a crime novel as we shall see in a moment. In crossword puzzles the search is limited to a relatively narrow range of combin- ational possibilities.

It is a puzzle with a fixed final outcome. You either get it right or not at all. There is an inbuilt assumption that situations do not materially change. The playing of Chess however, is far more complex in that it can have a large number of final outcomes depending on the interaction of both players and on how the game progresses. Yet, as we now well know it is possible to programme a computer to learn sufficiently about these combinations to actually pose a real threat to the Chess masters and even to beat them convincingly.

Deep Blue is one example of this triumph of the power of infor- mation processing. Given a large enough processing capability a computer can become better than a human being in the game of Chess. The playing of Go, on the other hand, is much more open-ended and does not, as of the present, lend itself to the kind of programming attainable in Chess.

It is closer to that of a crime novel. In the case of a good crime novel, the reader is often left in suspense right until the end of the novel, or sometimes even then the culprit is not identified. The crime novel appeals more through the skill of its construction than by its content or outcome. Suspense and intrigue are built into the plot. Its technique can be called one of deliberate ambiguity.

The final twist comes when the reader is somewhat surprised or taken aback by whom the culprit turns out to be. A few odd bits, which had been smuggled in unnoticed under a dazzling camouflage of insignificant details, are then triumphantly dragged out and delivered as the logical outcome of the unfolding story.

Writing a really good crime novel is no mean achievement since it requires several sub-themes and hence several series of accompanying clues to be kept running simultaneously much like the polyphonic character of music. The reader is not allowed to concentrate on the development of a singular plot. The crime novel tech- nique is a supreme example of a nomadic logic and a guide as to how we should be re- educating our attention so as to achieve a deeper insight and foresight into the situations in which we find ourselves.

Foresight is the ability to hold in abeyance our need for premature closure and to see multiple possibilities developing in an open-ended situation. It relies on a heightened sensitivity to the micro-development of material events taking place at the periphery of human consciousness. In this regard the cultivation of foresight and the far-sightedness that it instils entails a shift in attention away from focal awareness to the concerns of subsidiary awareness.

Learning to develop foresight is learning to resist the seductions of premature closure. This is a vital quality for successful visioning and scenario-creation. Conclusion What we have argued in this chapter is that foresight is essentially about the re- education of attention.

We are culturally programed to attend to the visible, the articulate, the compact, the precise; to gaze and not to glance. The frontal gaze is abstracting, objectifying, and passive. The sideways glance, on the other hand, is furtive, movement-sensitive, and interactive. The latter is much more sensitive to event-happenings at the periphery of vision and hence more able to grasp the unfolding minutiae of event-situations.

This pre- occupation with form and figure prevents us from engaging in the much more messy and ambiguous character of event-happenings in the real world. What is needed in the place of state logic is a nomadic logic that encourages us to scatter our attention and to resist any attempts at premature definition or closure. It celebrates the potenti- alities and possibilities that accompany vagueness, ambiguity and the fluidity of experience.

It enables us to intuit the fore-structure of event-happenings by causing us to attend not so much to the content of information but to the hidden structural order that underlies seemingly disparate activities and events.

When visionaries and leaders, when futurists and scenario-planners appear prophetic and farsighted it is because they are deeply tuned in to the unconscious structures of comprehension that are inaccessible to the conscious mind. Sensitivity to such deep structures can be systematically cultivated through a variety of ways. Crosswords and the playing of combination games such as chess go some way to helping us to be more sensitized to the alternative possibilities confronting any given situation.

Go and crime novels represent a much more radical extension of this kind of dispersive activity that is inspired by the nomadic logic we refer to here. They blur lines of confrontation, level out hierarchical differences and confuse simple cause and effect thinking. The extreme case is in great works of art, poetry and music, which plumb the depths of human consciousness and are able to achieve magnificent glimpses of the inherently open-ended and creative nature of the human condition.

This is why Ruskin was able to inspire Mahatma Gandhi with his prophetic words: Hundreds of people can talk for one who can think, but thousands can think for one who can see. To see clearly is poetry, prophecy and religion. John Ruskin , Unto this Last, p. Chia, R. De Castro, V. Deleuze, G. Ehrenzweig, A.

Fahey, L. Gibson, J. Heidegger, M. James, W. Matsushita, K. McDermott, J. Polanyi, M. Grene , Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Ruskin, J. Saussure, F. Schwartz, P. Spinosa, C. Wack, P. Wilson Allen, G. Narayanan and Liam Fahey Introduction Strategy is meaningful only with reference to the future.

Yet attention to how and why the future might unfold often remains less than explicit across the sub-strands of both theoretical and applied approaches to strategy determination. Strategy analysis methodologies stemming from diverse disciplinary underpinnings e. Methodologies range from predominantly descriptions of the current and immediate term as in industry analyses Porter, to broad-brush projections of alternative futures exemplified in scen- arios crafted by World Future Society and many corporations.

Rarely, however, does the discourse across these strategy sub-literatures transcend to the meta-theoretic level, questioning the epistemological bases of these analyses of the future. Because the future has not yet happened, it must be conceived, imagined, or otherwise created as an explicit cognitive act by one or more individuals. For our purpose, we assume that the relevant individuals or group have some action purpose for doing so. Hence, we argue that the concepts and methodologies that underlie such constructions of the future can and should be erected upon sound epistemological foundations.

Building upon the work on Nicholas Rescher, we offer an epistemological analysis of two different approaches to the future invention and navigation, which in various guises are evident in the strategic management literature. We organize our analysis into five sections. First, we briefly make the case that any effort to construct the future unavoidably confronts epistemological challenges.

In the final section, we address the organizational implications that stem from subjecting the two modes of future analysis to serious epistemological scrutiny. Stated differently, how do we deal with the basic and unavoidable epistemological issues involved in grappling with the future?

What methodologies enable us to do so? The first question directs attention to the epistemological anchors of our assertions about the future whereas the second focuses attention on the methodologies that are invoked to depict how the future might unfold. Some of these concerns emanate from the nature of things in the world we inhabit. Ontologically, the future is non- existent, thus, empirical verification of any assertions about the future will have to wait for the future to unfold.

Second, only in a totally deterministic world, can we say that the future is causally encompassed in the present. Stated differently, the future is causally underdetermined by the realities of the present and is open to the develop- ment of wholly unprecedented patterns due to the interactions and contingencies of actors and trends.

Third, the future as such, cannot exert any causal influence on the present — though of course our ideas about it will have a major formative impact in what we think and do. Confounding these ontological considerations is the fact that the future may also be cognitively inaccessible due to the incompleteness of information. First, we may not be able to secure the needed data. Indeed, it is often surprisingly difficult to obtain the requisite data to develop deep understanding of the past and present as one input to developing future possibilities.

Second, we are not able to ascertain the patterns embedded in or lurking behind the available data necessary to posit the underlying operative laws with respect to how and why alternative futures might unfold. Third, interpreting data and underlying regularities patterns, operative laws involve dynam- ics and complexities that simply exceed our innate cognitive capabilities.

We simply cannot rely solely on our observation or understanding of the present and past as the platform to develop futures projections. In short, therefore, the future cannot be depicted without the intervention of the human mind: we cannot project what we cannot conceive. How well we conceive of the future in light of the ontological and cognitive considerations just noted thus depends upon our conceptual abilities, both as individuals and collectivities.

It builds upon the nineteenth and early twentieth century European philosophers and is thus classical in nature. A preeminent philosopher of science, Rescher has devoted significant attention to the future see, for example, Rescher, , having been involved in the invention of the Delphi technique while at Rand Corporation. His focus is primarily cognitive, but he admits pragmatism in his discussion, especially in his treatment of technological constraints on science.

While a detailed account of the Rescherian position is beyond the scope of this chapter the interested reader may examine several books referred to in the bibliography , we will delineate the key elements of his framework relevant to exploration of the future.

To begin with, all that we generally have is a body of prima facie truths, that is, propositions that qualify as potential, perhaps even as promising, candidates for acceptance. The epistemic realities being as they are, these candidate truths will, in general, form a mutually inconsistent set, and so exclude one another so as to destroy the prospects of their being accorded in toto recognition as truths pure and simple.

Systemic coherence thus affords the criterial validation of the qualifications of truth candidates for being classed as genuine truths. Systematicity becomes not just the organizer but the test of truth. Rescher, , p. Although coherence is a primary criterion for judgment, the two cycles emphasize different modes of coherence.

The former cycle uses coherence with available or emerging theoretical scheme whereas the latter cycle looks to empirical evidence to judge the validity of truth claims. Thus, the first focuses on the intellectual aspect of description, explanation, and understanding, the second the pragmatic aspect of prediction and control over nature.

Both cycles are present in any epistemology, although the substance and emphases may vary from one epistemological platform to the other.

Concepts, however, represent types of facts and hence are more general. What may be a new fact may not be a new concept; the concept must already have subsumed the fact. Thus the epistemic status of a belief depends upon its location in the web: facts are lower than concepts in status.

Coherence Process Given the process orientation inherent in the two cycles, Rescher expects epistemo- logical platforms to cohere. He thus insists on harmony between explanation and prediction. Of course, change is ever present: Whereas harmony is ideal, Rescher expects knowledge regimes to be superseded, much like the paradigm shifts observed by Kuhn.

The process is timeless, although constrained by available technology a point we will elaborate later ; and the goal of the enterprise is primarily cognitive. Rescher insists on the process of knowledge generation as the key to his epistemo- logical framework. Rational inquiry, in turn, lies at the heart of the two cycles, the interaction of which powers the continual generation and testing of knowledge.

Thus, Rescher does not insist on the truth of facts in the beginning: since the starting conditions of inquiry may be far from the truth and the truth-as-accepted itself is susceptible to be proven otherwise, Rescher locates rationality in the process of knowledge generation. This incompleteness of science is countered by the arbitrament of praxis, which affords an inquiry- independent standard for assessing the adequacy of the cognitive endeavor.

Rescher views the end of science as a myth: there are no limits to inquiry in the cognitive sense. But he argues that the technological and economic constraints may slow the cognitive enterprise, as the marginal increment in knowledge requires ever increasing cost in technological and methodological developments. Technology is thus servant of inquiry, but extracts an economic price.

The Role of Conceptual Innovation The import of a Rescherian framework for problems of the future hinges on perhaps its key constituent element — conceptual innovation. It emphatically alerts us to the central and critical need to engage in re conceptualization: to continually reframe the world as we understand it. It reminds us that knowledge advancement, whether discontinuous or incremental, always traces its impetus to change in our understand- ing of concepts: developing new concepts, adapting old concepts, looking for connection among concepts.

Such innovation in how we conceive of the world, in short what we see in the world, how we see it, and indeed, why we see it, thus must become a preoccupation of those who consciously tackle the problem of the future. Conceptual innovation further admonishes us to accept that the acquisition or creation of new data and information always compels us to assess whether our long- held concepts are adequate to describing and explaining the world around us, not to mention the world as it might be at some future point in time.

Further up the ladder of conceptualization, a set of managers by identifying and reconceiving connections among a number of unfolding data points such as customer, competitor, and technology change might reason through a process of causal linkages that a radical new market opportunity would soon present itself.

Real and Possible Conceptual innovation extends the knowledge domain beyond the realm of what is description and current know-how control. Mind Involving and Invoking Rescher distinguishes between mind involving and mind invoking. Of course, use of existing data and theories to make sense of the future — mind involving is always present. Data are not merely gathered and orchestrated; often they are created.

Sense-data, the stuff of day-to-day experience, can be sifted, reconfigured, and interpreted to generate mean- ing that is far afield from initial observations.

Data are always formed through the use of mind-made conceptions. Truth, or more generally, the insight value of data, stems not from its local and isolated aspects e. Facts in isolation possess limited power to convey meaning.

Yet the mind-involved and mind-invoked conception of the world does not give rise to an egocentric, self-referential stance. Rescher rejects all claims to a privileged status for our own conception of things Rescher, , p. Thus, the cognitive enterprise at the heart of knowledge generation and assessment requires extensive and intensive communica- tion and interaction — in short, real dialogue with others.

Inquiry therefore becomes, and must be, a communal project of investigation. How do the conceptually and experientially generated inputs get transformed into outputs?

But the raw content of such interpersonal exchange, by definition, entails the distinct, indeed idiosyncratic, view- points of each participant: the conceptions and their interconnections formed by each individual constitute the grist for the exchange among and between individuals.

The knowledge process thus must articulate arguments involving clear connections among elements in the reasoning — often reflecting causal linkages, assumptions underpinning viewpoints, and most critically, persistent and pointed challenges to key elements in the reasoning process resulting not just from conceptual grounds but from learning due to monitoring and reflecting on the results of action.

In short, knowledge is an artifact not only of our minds but also of how our minds work. Thus, different views of the future rest upon methodologies fashioned to reflect and enable our minds to work in quite distinct ways. In summary, the Rescherian epistemological framework allows us to portray the essence of any approach to the future along several key features: 1 the relative emphasis on the two cycles of conceptual coherence and empirical validation: 2 the process of internal coherence; 3 the role of conceptual innovation; 4 the sources and mix of the real and possible; 5 the relative degree of mind-invoking and mind-involving in the cognitive com- ponent of the approach to the future; and 6 the requirements of language and the nature of the inquiring community.

Invention and Navigation as Contrasting Metaphors 45 To test the applicability of these features, we now turn to two common approaches to grappling with the future — invention and navigation.

Two Alternative Metaphors for the Future The received wisdom in strategic management exhorts organizations to peer into the macro environmental that is, the political, social, economic, technological, and eco- logical milieus and competitive contexts.

Projections about these contexts fuel the search for new business opportunities and threats to current or potential strategies, as well as the appropriate organizational actions to take advantage of these insights.

This need for projection is translated into practise in different ways in contempor- ary approaches to strategy formulation. We can characterize the approaches along a two dimensional plane: accuracy and time horizon, as shown in Figure 3.

Inevitably, beyond a certain horizon, projections become cognitively infeasible. Even when we confine ourselves to the feasible boundary there is a trade-off between time horizon and accuracy of forecasts, as shown in the figure.

At the risk of simplification, we can identify two major approaches to projection. Below we discuss each approach with the help of two disguised cases see Box 3. In Table 3. Invention The inventive mode, as a form of depicting the future sometimes simply referred to as prediction , has featured prominently in the intellectual tradition of many fields of Feasibility frontier Time horizon Invention Navigation Operations Accuracy Figure 3.

Without exception, all the current and potential players proclaim that this market space five years hence will bear little if any resemblance to any product-market segment today. New technologies, at varying stages of development, are anticipated to reach the market over the next five years.

Some of these technologies, and perhaps some technologies yet to be conceived, will also be heavily influenced by work taking place in basic and applied research across a number of science domains — some of which at first glance may seem to outsiders totally disconnected from the solution space at issue. Adoption and use of the potential solution, in any of its forms, will also require dramatic shifts in the technology infrastructures, work practices, and organizational cultures in all potential customer organizations.

Yet the alleged value and benefits of the potential solution may be sufficient to propel corporate organizations to adapt to its demands. SemiCon SemiCon is a leading provider of a long established line of manufactured products. These products serve as components in the process technologies employed by a wide variety of manufacturing firms.

Although new rivals have entered the business over the past 10 years or so, it was only in the past few years that the core product had begun to reflect advances in its constituent technolo- gies. SemiCon executives felt that the firm was now, perhaps for the first time, facing an opportunity to extend the product line. Invention and Navigation as Contrasting Metaphors 47 The details of the problem remain murky: different customers have specified the problem in different ways.

Table 3. It springs from one overarching premise: the future can and should be designed. This premise is not accidental: it simultaneously stems from the deep-seated desire of human beings to control their destiny and exalts their ability to do. Emery and Trist , for example, drawing upon Vickers , Sommerhoff and Lewin explored diverse futures in the realm of social ecology; their primary focus was the institutions of society. In short, invention aims either to create possible futures or craft possibilities for a desired future, somewhat distant in time.

Hence, its outputs are directional, not prescriptive. FullCon is trying to depict what this market space might look like. Given alternative depictions of what the market space might look like, it can then assess what, if any, business opportun- ities and threats might lurk in each, and what it would take to exploit them.

Invention emanates from and is made possible by a specific conception of the future. The future is fundamentally open and manipulable by social and human action.

It is thus neither inevitable nor controlled by immutable laws, even if they are not well understood. It accepts the value of scientifically generated knowledge2 for grounding extrapolations of current trends, but underscores the need for know- ledge creation as a parallel and requisite activity in the invention of future.

Put another way, inventors may have to invent new branches of knowledge, or create new connections across established knowledge domains or disciplines, in their en- deavors to posit descriptions of possibilities. In the case of FullCon, many potential technological possibilities lie utterly outside its current technology base.

The role of the mind is thus three-fold: assimilate data to extrapolate, imagine possibilities, and design processes of inquiry into what the mind does not yet know.

Invention and Navigation as Contrasting Metaphors 49 The critical actors in the invention mode fall into two overlapping clusters: orches- trators and idea developers. Orchestrators are typically the elites within a system, be they in society or in an organization. Invention-focused scholars typically prefer democratic processes in the design of values, but expertise in the design of processes. Of course, the emphasis on altering the mind-set predisposes them to democratic processes. In this sense, invention can be seen as an antidote to the folly of ignorance usually ascribed to centralized planning approaches by the Austrian school Hayek, Invention, when successful, creates discontinuities Drucker, : the future evolves through a series of disruptions that reflect distinctive breaks in apparent patterns.

Invention cele- brates deviations or errors as opportunities to build coherent, but different possibil- ities, thereby creating dynamic and turbulent environments. Such foresight in turn both foments and requires a willingness to radically reshape strategy and reconfigure the current organizational form. Invention is thus ideally suited for long-term efforts to fundamentally recon- ceive strategy and transform the organization.

The fundamental strategy and organ- izational shifts undertaken by DuPont and Monsanto, as they move from traditional chemistry and pharmaceuticals respectively to exploit the opportunities presented by research and technological discontinuities in the life sciences, capture significant facets of the inventive mode. Navigation Navigation as a metaphor for designing the future has enjoyed a schizophrenic existence.

Although selective features of navigation have been widely practiced in organizations, only recently has it been recognized as a distinct means of understand- ing and dealing with the future. In the past few years, navigation has emerged under the banners of strategic experimentation McGrath and MacMillan, , competing on the edge Pascale et al. It acknowledges the limitations of human and social knowledge, i. However, its underlying philosophy or esprit remains optimistic about the human capability to extract the requisite knowledge for managing strategy and organizational form.

The uncertainties can be identified; developments along them can be tracked; and inferences can be drawn to suggest preferred action plans. SeminCon illustrates how navigation endorses the present as the source of the most appropriate indicators of the future.

Since the world is evolving according to partially understood laws or more broadly, patterns with known form, navigation requires human and social actors to engage intensely with the world around them. The role of the mind is to discover patterns of evolution so that the journey to the future can be charted on firm cognitive foundations. Thought and action are conjoined as a tight system with limited temporal distance between the two. Although navigation recog- nizes the role of strategy Porter, , it underscores the limitation to our know- ledge, by augmenting the notion of strategy with a perspective and praxis on evolution.

Navigation views the future as much more destined than invention: the present and the emergent processes interact to largely determine future states. To circumvent ignorance of the underlying laws, navigation proposes a three-pronged method for detecting emerging and potential change and responding accordingly. First, unlike the grand conceptual schemes hatched under the rubric of invention, navigation proposes a series of low-cost experiments as the means to generate a significant portion of the requisite data.

Second, navigation designs swift feedback: the data provide the basis for inferences and judgments about the laws. SemiCon managers lose little time in inferring some of the key attributes of a desired customer solution. Case studies including ICL, British Airways and United Distillers highlight the fact that those who feel scenario planning too 'futurist' to take seriously should take another look at its usefulness in wrestling with the pace of change.

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